New home construction has long been a cornerstone of Ontario’s economy, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs, generating billions in economic activity and tax revenue, and playing a central role in meeting the housing needs of a growing population. However, it is clear that that engine is stalling – and the implications of this go far beyond housing affordability. Housing sales and starts data from 2025 point to serious and compounding consequences for employment, future housing supply, government revenues, and the province’s long-term economic outlook. 

To understand the seriousness of the situation at hand, it is important to understand how the new housing sector works. Housing is built through a 10-year pipeline that typically begins with land acquisition, planning, design, and approvals. Approximately half way through pre-construction sales start, followed by a construction start, and finally a completion when a unit is ready for occupancy, with years separating each stage. The volume of homes under construction and the level of activity at each stage of the pipeline at any given time determines the level of construction activity in the economy and, by extension, the number of jobs supported by the sector. 

Across Ontario, that pipeline is now under significant strain as new home sales have declined to levels not seen since records started to be kept and publicly reported in 1981. In 2025, sales fell to approximately 15,000 units province-wide, down from historic levels of 65,000 to 85,000 homes annually. A decline of this magnitude will inevitably translate into fewer housing starts. By 2030, annual housing starts are expected to fall to roughly 40,000 units, including purpose-built rental, down from about 80,000 today. 

These sales trends are further pronounced in the Greater Toronto Area, with new home sales reaching the lowest level ever recorded in 2025. Total sales for the year were just 5,314 units. Single-family sales were down 63 per cent from the 10-year average, while condominium apartment sales were down a staggering 89 per cent.